春节期间金价站上5100美元，地缘风险催化“硬通货”避险属性

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, exceeding 2% and surpassing $5,100 per ounce, is primarily driven by the U.S. Supreme Court's rejection of President Trump's tariff policy and his consideration of limited military action against Iran, which has heightened global risk aversion [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling has led to uncertainty in trade policies, prompting increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [2]. - The underlying logic supporting the rise in gold prices remains unchanged, with the U.S. dollar's credibility being challenged, making gold a preferred safe-haven asset during risk events [2]. - Geopolitical tensions, including U.S. military interventions and trade disputes, have contributed to a persistent demand for gold as a hedge against inflation and currency instability [2]. Group 2: Price Trends and Predictions - Analysts predict that gold prices will likely experience short-term fluctuations but maintain a long-term upward trend due to declining dollar credibility and ongoing geopolitical tensions [3]. - The price of gold is expected to oscillate around $5,000 per ounce in the next six months, with a potential target of $10,000 per ounce in the long run [3]. - Upcoming changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership may introduce volatility in gold prices, depending on the new chair's policies regarding balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on long-term trends in gold investment, as short-term trading may be challenging [4]. - The allocation of gold in investment portfolios is recommended to be between 5% to 10% of household assets, with each price dip viewed as a buying opportunity [4]. - Central banks, as major buyers of gold, continue to increase their reserves in response to the weakening credibility of the U.S. dollar, enhancing gold's role as a non-credit asset [4]. Group 4: Global Gold Demand - As of January 2026, China's gold reserves reached 7.419 million ounces, marking a continuous increase for fifteen months [5]. - Global gold demand surpassed 5,000 tons in 2025, indicating a significant milestone in the market [5].