Group 1 - Global assets saw an overall increase during the Spring Festival holiday, with US stocks, Korean stocks, precious metals, and crude oil all strengthening [2][3][31] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.6%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index dropped by 2.8%, indicating a divergence in performance between old and new technology assets [2][31] - The MSCI Global Index rose by 1.0%, with the Nasdaq increasing by 1.5% and the S&P 500 by 1.1% during the same period [3][32] Group 2 - Gold and silver prices increased by 1.7% and 8.5% respectively, while crude oil prices rose by 5.6% due to geopolitical tensions in Iran and changes in US tariff policies [4][33] - The US Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) did not authorize the president to impose large-scale tariffs, impacting Trump's tariff policies significantly [5][34] - Trump announced a temporary 10% import tariff on global goods, effective February 24, which will last for 150 days [5][34] Group 3 - The US economy showed signs of slowing down, with the fourth-quarter GDP growth at 1.4%, significantly below the expected 2.8% [9][37] - The core PCE price index for December exceeded expectations, growing by 3.0% year-on-year, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [8][36] - The Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes revealed internal divisions regarding future interest rate policies, with some members advocating for potential rate hikes [10][38] Group 4 - The Spring Festival travel demand surged, with an estimated 9.5 billion trips expected, marking a historical high [17][45] - Retail and catering sectors saw a daily sales increase of 8.6% during the holiday period compared to the previous year [19][47] - The total number of screenings during the Spring Festival reached a record high, although box office recovery was weaker than anticipated [20][48] Group 5 - Financial data for January showed a positive start, with new social financing reaching 7.2 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations [21][49] - The Ministry of Finance and other departments announced tax incentives for technology innovation imports, effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2030 [22][50] - OpenAI significantly reduced its total computing expenditure target to $600 billion by 2030, indicating a shift towards a more cautious investment strategy [23][51]
【兴证策略张启尧团队】春节假期全球资产表现与要闻速览