US Trade Policy Developments and Their Market Impact This Week

Group 1 - The Trump administration signed a new proclamation allowing a temporary 10% tariff on imports from almost all countries for up to 150 days, indicating a commitment to maintain tariffs as a macro policy instrument despite legal challenges [1] - Industry-specific tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and other sectors remain unaffected, reflecting a continued protectionist stance in US trade policy [2] - The potential $130 billion in tariff revenue collected under the unlawful IEEPA framework raises uncertainty regarding refunds to companies or consumers, which could impact consumption and economic expectations [3] Group 2 - The Supreme Court ruling limits the unilateral power of the president, providing stability to markets by reducing the risk of sudden large-scale tariff shocks, while the administration's quick implementation of a new 10% global tariff shows a continued aggressive trade approach [5] - The dynamic of legal constraints versus aggressive trade measures is expected to influence market sentiment, as investors assess whether the new temporary tariffs signal a temporary measure or the beginning of a new cycle of trade actions [6]