兴业证券：美关税判决是行政权受限带来的长期叙事变化 关注税率下降对A股出口链影响

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the tariffs imposed by the U.S. on China, including the fentanyl tariffs, are unconstitutional, which is expected to impact asset prices, supporting U.S. stocks while putting pressure on U.S. bonds [1] Group 1: Legal and Regulatory Implications - The ruling emphasizes that the power to impose tariffs belongs to Congress, as stated in the Constitution, and cannot be delegated to the executive branch without clear and explicit language [2] - The ruling reaffirms the "major questions doctrine," which requires that significant economic and political regulations must have explicit authorization from Congress, limiting the expansion of executive power [3] - The interpretation of the IEEPA statute indicates that it does not grant the president the authority to impose tariffs, as the statute has never been used for such purposes in its 50-year history [4] Group 2: Economic and Market Impact - The reduction in tariffs is expected to lead to a decrease in government revenue and a slight decline in U.S. consumer prices, while the fiscal deficit may increase [8] - The ruling is anticipated to create a long-term narrative shift in U.S. politics, potentially increasing chaos in future policies and stimulating demand for precious metals and other "weak dollar assets" [8] - Industries with significant revenue exposure to the U.S. and substantial production capacity in ASEAN regions, such as light industry appliances, consumer electronics, batteries, automotive parts, and medical devices, are expected to benefit from the tariff reductions [8][12] Group 3: Political Dynamics - The ruling may lead to ongoing disputes over tariff authority, with Congress likely to strengthen its oversight of executive actions, impacting the speed and flexibility of future tariff policies [13] - The conflict between executive and legislative powers is expected to intensify, with Congress potentially seeking to limit Trump's other executive powers on various issues [13] - The potential for alternative tariffs may affect international relations, particularly with China, as the ruling could be seen as an opportunity for tariff reductions in U.S.-China relations [13]