GGII：我国锂电池隔膜行业出货量高速增长 供需紧张将持续至2027年

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese lithium battery separator industry is expected to experience rapid growth in shipment volume, reaching 32.3 billion square meters in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 45.4% [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The separator industry is transitioning from a loose supply-demand balance to a tight one, with leading companies operating at full capacity, resulting in a surge in capacity utilization rates [3] - By Q4 2025, the capacity utilization rate for wet-process separators is projected to exceed 80%, nearing the high point of 2022, indicating a shift to a tight supply-demand scenario [3] - The industry is cautious about capacity expansion due to expectations of solid-state battery replacements, which may render separators a "sunset industry" [3][4] Market Structure Changes - The market share of dry-process separators is declining, dropping below 18% in 2025 from 22% in 2024, while wet-process separators are becoming the dominant force, increasing their share from 78% to 82.6% [2] - The price competition between wet and dry separators has narrowed, with the price difference reducing to 0.15 yuan per square meter, accelerating customer transitions to wet-process separators [2] Technological Advancements - The industry is focusing on high-end demands, with significant performance upgrades in separator technology [5] - The application of high puncture strength 5μm wet-process separators is increasing, with over 30% usage among leading battery companies by Q4 [7] - The trend towards fast charging is driving the porosity requirements for separators, with the porosity for power battery separators rising from below 50% to 50-55% [7] Future Outlook - The separator industry is expected to maintain high prosperity in 2026, with capacity utilization rates projected to increase by 7-10 percentage points [8] - Prices are anticipated to recover, with mainstream wet-process separator prices expected to rise by 10-20% year-on-year as the supply-demand balance tightens [8] - The penetration of high-end products is expected to accelerate, with the application of 5μm high puncture wet-process separators among leading companies likely to exceed 50% [8]