特朗普关税被判违宪，影响几何？【国盛宏观熊园团队】

Core Conclusion - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump's IEEPA tariffs were unconstitutional, leading to the immediate termination of reciprocal tariffs and fentanyl tariffs, which aligns with market expectations. The handling of previously collected tariffs will be determined by lower courts [1][5][22]. Group 1: Tariff Changes - Following the Supreme Court's ruling, Trump announced a new 10% tariff under Section 122 as a temporary measure, which he later suggested could increase to 15%, pending formal confirmation [2][27][28]. - The Section 122 tariffs are intended as a stopgap, with expectations that the tariff framework will shift back to Sections 301 and 232 in the medium term [11][30][32]. - If the new 15% tariff is implemented, the effective tariff rate on China would decrease by 8.4 percentage points to 28.6%, potentially increasing U.S. exports to China by 9.1% and overall exports by 0.6% [23][35][37]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The ruling is expected to benefit U.S. stocks due to improved profitability from reduced tariffs, while concerns over deteriorating U.S. fiscal conditions have led to rising bond yields and a weaker dollar [4][18][25]. - The potential return of IEEPA tariff revenues could increase the U.S. deficit rate by 0.55 percentage points, with significant implications for fiscal policy [3][39][40]. - The market's reaction to the ruling included a rise in U.S. stocks, a decline in bonds and the dollar, and fluctuations in gold prices, which initially fell before rebounding [6][18][25].