上币周期进化论：昨日的风，飞不了今天的筝

Core Viewpoint - The evolution of the cryptocurrency listing process is likened to orthodontics, transitioning from a chaotic state in 2017 to an industrialized model by 2025, with each token distribution method reflecting structural corrections in the industry [1] Group 1: Stages of Listing Evolution - The listing process is divided into four stages: Baby Teeth, Growing Teeth, Deformed, and Orthodontics, with the core focus being on who holds the asset pricing power [4][7] - The first stage (2017-2018) saw pricing power in the hands of "shouters" and grassroots communities, leading to a noisy market where bad assets drove out good ones [4][7] - The second stage (2019-2022) marked a shift to exchanges regaining pricing power through IEOs and Launchpads, acting as gatekeepers and investment banks [4][10] - The third stage (2023-2024) experienced a collapse of VC pricing power, resulting in low liquidity for retail investors and forced exchanges to intervene [5][15] - The fourth stage (2025) anticipates a market driven by ETF flows and corporate earnings, with pricing power shifting to more mature financial mechanisms [20][21] Group 2: Historical Context and Logic - The first stage (2017-2018) was characterized by a lack of regulation, where exchanges had high decision-making freedom and community voting determined liquidity [9][10] - The second stage (2019-2022) focused on credit repair and ecosystem building, with exchanges conducting thorough due diligence to ensure project credibility [12][13] - The third stage (2023-2024) faced challenges from high valuations and low circulation, leading to significant potential selling pressure in the market [18][19] - The fourth stage (2025) is expected to see the cryptocurrency market industrialize, with a total market value exceeding $4 trillion and perpetual contracts dominating trading volume [20][21] Group 3: Evolution of Listing Fees - The evolution of listing fees reflects a power shift in the industry, transitioning from "paying for access" to "spending wealth for liquidity" [29][30] - In the first stage (2017-2018), listing fees were often opaque and varied widely, with exchanges benefiting directly from these fees [29][30] - The second stage (2019-2022) saw a shift to ecosystem sharing, where projects allocated tokens to platform users instead of paying direct fees [30][31] - The third stage (2023-2024) introduced mandatory token allocations to counter VC monopolization, with exchanges enforcing distribution to users [31][32] - By 2025, the listing fee structure is expected to reflect a "wealth-destroying dowry" model, where projects must allocate significant portions of their tokens to gain access to top-tier platforms [33][34][37]