Global Market | Global cash is fuelling LatAm stock rally

Market Overview - Latin American equity markets are experiencing significant inflows, marking the strongest start to the year since 1991, with the MSCI EM Latin America Index reaching an eleven-year high and increasing over 20% in 2026 [1][17] - Investors are recalibrating their focus on Latin America ahead of presidential elections in Brazil and Colombia, anticipating potential local policy shifts and lower interest rates [1][17] Investment Trends - The buying spree is evident in US-listed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with BlackRock's iShares Latin America 40 ETF attracting over $1 billion in January, raising total assets to approximately $4.3 billion [6][17] - The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) saw its strongest monthly inflows in over a decade in January, becoming a preferred tool for exposure to Brazilian equities [7][17] Political Landscape - In Brazil, the potential for a political shift in the upcoming October election is influencing investment decisions, with some investors betting on the opposition's victory over President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva [8][17] - In Colombia, political divisions among candidates are creating uncertainty ahead of the May presidential election, with the leading leftist contender raising concerns about asset price stability [12][17] Foreign vs. Local Investment - Foreign investors are increasingly purchasing directly in local markets, with January seeing the highest foreign buying in at least four years across Brazilian, Mexican, and Colombian markets [13][17] - Local investors remain cautious due to political uncertainties, contrasting with foreign investors who are more focused on potential returns [14][17] Central Bank Policies - Expectations are building for Brazil's central bank to lower the benchmark Selic rate from 15%, its highest in nearly two decades, starting in March [15][17] - In Mexico, the central bank maintained its benchmark interest rate at 7%, pausing an easing cycle that began nearly two years ago [15][17] Overall Sentiment - The overall sentiment towards Latin America remains positive, driven by potential rate cuts, favorable political changes, and commodity tailwinds [16][17]