海南机场新免税合约生效，股价震荡回升机构看好

Group 1 - The new duty-free contract will take effect on February 11, 2026, adopting a "minimum guarantee + commission" model, with a minimum rent of 590 million yuan in the first year, which is approximately 10% higher than the previous contract level [1] - China Duty Free Group and Wangfujing have won the bids for T3 and T2 terminals respectively [1] - The peak return travel during the Spring Festival has boosted air passenger traffic, with Hainan Airport reporting a single-day passenger volume exceeding 232,000 on February 23, which may indirectly enhance demand expectations for the airport sector [1] Group 2 - Recent stock price fluctuations show a recovery, with a closing price of 2.47 HKD on February 20 (a daily decline of 2.37%) and a closing price of 2.51 HKD on February 23 (a daily increase of 1.62%), resulting in a total fluctuation of -0.79% over the period [2] - Technical indicators show that the MACD histogram has narrowed from -0.018 to -0.014, and the KDJ J-line has risen from 13.866 to 28.784, moving out of the oversold zone [2] - On February 23, there was a total net inflow of 1.698 million HKD, with a net inflow of 1.03 million HKD from major funds [2] Group 3 - CICC's research report on January 12 maintains a target price of 2.9 HKD (based on 0.9 times the 2026 price-to-book ratio), indicating an upside potential of approximately 15.5% from the current stock price [3] - The new duty-free contract shows increased rent elasticity, but there are risks associated with passenger traffic growth not meeting expectations [3] - Currently, the average target price from institutions is 2.86 HKD, with 50% of institutional opinions recommending buy or add positions as of February 2026 [3]