Gold News: Gold Rally Intact — Why Iran and the Fed Matter More Than Tariffs

Group 1: Gold Market Trends - Gold is currently in an uptrend on the weekly chart, with a notable decline a month ago that appears to have reset the market and reestablished trend line support [1] - The dollar's weakness following tariff announcements has led to increased foreign demand for gold, although the tariffs themselves do not seem to be a strong bullish factor for gold prices [2] - The technical outlook indicates that the gold market is likely to trend higher, with a key Fibonacci level at $5143.89 influencing its direction [6] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran are contributing to the volatility in gold prices, with traders closely monitoring the situation as military action could be imminent [3][6] - The geopolitical tensions are expected to have a more lasting impact compared to the tariff news, which is anticipated to fade over time [6] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Uncertainty regarding the timing of the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026 could limit gold's gains, as seen when gold prices peaked at $5602.23 following the last Fed meeting [4] - Prior to the tariff news, the dollar was stable due to weaker GDP and higher inflation, which suggested that the Fed might not cut rates in the near term [5] - Market expectations indicate a 94% chance that the Fed will not cut rates in March, with only a 44% chance for a cut in June [5]