【建投观察】节间海外市场逻辑梳理

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the recent fluctuations in global commodity markets driven by geopolitical tensions, policy changes, and economic data, particularly focusing on the impact of U.S. military actions in the Middle East and adjustments in U.S. tariff policies. Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. military presence in the Middle East, particularly the deployment of the USS Ford, is exerting pressure on Iran amid negotiations, with predictions of increased likelihood of military action by the end of March 2026 [5][18]. - The oil market has partially priced in the potential for conflict, which could lead to sharp price increases if tensions escalate, followed by a potential price drop once the situation stabilizes [6][19]. Policy Factors - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not grant the president the authority to impose tariffs without congressional approval, affecting the legality of previously imposed tariffs [22]. - The Trump administration's response includes raising tariffs under a different legal framework, but the overall impact of these changes on the market may be limited due to existing exemptions and the temporary nature of the new tariffs [22]. Economic Data - The U.S. economy is showing signs of "stagflation," with Q4 2025 GDP growth at approximately 1.4% and core PCE inflation at 3% year-over-year, indicating economic weakness [11][23]. - The Federal Reserve's future monetary policy direction remains uncertain, influenced by the balance of dovish and hawkish members in upcoming appointments, which could lead to shifts in market expectations [12][24]. Commodity Market Performance - During the holiday period, commodities such as gold, silver, and oil saw significant price increases, with WTI crude oil rising from $62.83 to $66.31, a 5.54% increase, and Brent crude oil increasing by 5.46% [17]. - The report notes that various commodities are experiencing upward price movements, reflecting the complex interplay of geopolitical and economic factors [4][20].