【春节节后总结】宏观：多重叙事定价，贵金属偏强走势

Group 1 - The core narrative during the holiday period was influenced by macroeconomic factors, with precious metals driven by interest rate cut expectations and risk aversion sentiment [3][19] - Initial pressure on precious metals was due to a strong US dollar and adjustments in equity markets, but later rebounds in tech stocks and calming statements from Federal Reserve officials supported precious metal prices [3][19] - The US Supreme Court's ruling against Trump's previous tariff policies led to a weakening of the dollar, which in turn drove precious metals higher [3][19] Group 2 - Key economic data during the holiday included the US GDP growth rate of 1.4% for Q4 2025, significantly below the expected 2.5%, indicating a slowdown primarily due to government shutdowns and reduced consumer spending [4][20] - The US inflation rate remained stubborn, with the PCE price index rising to 2.9% in Q4, while the core CPI fell to 2.5%, the lowest in five years, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [4][20] - The Federal Reserve's statements regarding potential interest rate cuts were tempered by meeting minutes suggesting a willingness to consider rate hikes if inflation remains high, creating uncertainty in the interest rate path [5][21] Group 3 - Concerns over the impact of artificial intelligence on profits across various sectors led to a decline in equity markets prior to the holiday, but the market stabilized during the holiday period with tech stocks rebounding [5][21] - The Supreme Court's decision to overturn Trump's global tariffs fundamentally changed market pricing frameworks, leading to immediate increases in both stock and precious metal prices [6][22] - The geopolitical landscape remains uncertain, particularly with ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations, which has implications for oil prices and market stability [7][23] Group 4 - The overall macro environment during the holiday was characterized by a lack of clear direction, influenced by narratives around interest rates, AI, geopolitical tensions, and trade tariffs, leading to volatility in the dollar and bond yields [8][24] - The market's focus on Trump's tariff narrative and its implications for pricing dynamics contributed to a stronger performance in precious metals, while the overall market remained sensitive to these narratives [8][24] - Upcoming events to watch include market reactions to the global tariff situation, Nvidia's earnings report, and statements from Federal Reserve officials, all of which could impact volatility [8][24]