Oil Market: How Likely Is a Protracted Closure of the Strait of Hormuz?

What would be the circumstances where we would see a shutting of the Straits of Hormuz, do you think, and what impact would that have on the global price. There are maybe two ways of looking at it. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the impact will be significant because it is a very important artery for the seaborne oil transportation.Iran's 20 million barrels per day, goodwill and petroleum products are transported through the strait and this is about a quarter of global seaborne oil trade and one fifth o ...