标普500陷入异常窄幅震荡：本轮牛市是韧性十足，还是已力竭？

Group 1: Macro Economy - The U.S. economy is projected to maintain a nominal growth rate of approximately 5% in 2025, with inflation contributing more than actual output growth, mirroring the 2024 landscape [3][13] - Capital expenditures by companies pursuing "super intelligence" are expected to strongly drive economic activity, supported by high-income asset holders and an aging population sustaining service-oriented consumer spending [3][13] - Corporate earnings are experiencing double-digit growth for the fifth consecutive quarter, a steady but unexciting growth rate that has been fully anticipated by investors [4][14] Group 2: Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is expected to remain inactive throughout the first half of 2026, indicating a balanced economic state that does not require urgent adjustments [5][15] - Despite the resilience of the job market and inflation hovering above 2.5%, the Fed's stance reflects a clear "wait-and-see" approach [5][15] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The S&P 500 index is experiencing unprecedented stagnation, with over 40% of trading days in the past two months hovering around 6900 points, a level first reached on October 28, 2025 [2][12] - Approximately 60% of individual stocks have outperformed the S&P 500, indicating a healthy market breadth, although historically, such a pattern does not typically accompany significant index gains [7][16] - The equal-weighted S&P 500 has risen by 6.4% this year, while the "Magnificent 7" tech giants have collectively declined by 5% [16][18] Group 4: Diversification and Investment Strategies - Diversification is currently providing excess returns for investors as the S&P 500 seeks direction [18] - The narrow trading range is seen as beneficial, weakening the conviction of both bulls and bears, prompting a reassessment of assumptions [18] Group 5: Key Catalysts - Nvidia's earnings report, being the last major tech earnings release of the quarter, could serve as a catalyst for market direction, potentially acting as a "clearinghouse" for market sentiment [18]