美联储理事沃勒：若非农疲软 3月将投票支持降息

Core Viewpoint - The decision on whether to support interest rate cuts at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will depend on the forthcoming non-farm labor market data, as indicated by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller [1][2]. Group 1: Labor Market Data - Waller stated that if the February labor market statistics show a reduction in downside risks similar to January's data, maintaining the current interest rate may be appropriate during the FOMC meeting on March 17-18 [1]. - He expressed concern that the positive labor market statistics might be misleading, particularly as revisions indicated that net job additions for 2025 could be nearly zero, suggesting a weak labor market [2]. Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Waller emphasized that the assessment of inflation would exclude the impact of aggressive trade policies from the Trump administration, predicting that core inflation is nearing the FOMC's 2% target [3]. - Despite strong January non-farm employment data, which led to a reduction in market expectations for rate cuts in 2026, hedge fund manager David Einhorn believes the Fed will cut rates more than the market anticipates [3][4]. Group 3: Market Expectations - Einhorn described betting on more frequent rate cuts than currently expected by the market as one of the best trading strategies [4]. - Goldman Sachs analysts noted that assuming Kevin Warsh's hawkish past at the Fed reflects his future policy stance is incorrect, suggesting that a willingness to cut rates is a prerequisite for his current role [4].