Buy Palantir on Recent Softness Amid Massive Short-Term Price Upside

Core Viewpoint - Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is experiencing a price downturn despite strong earnings and operational performance, currently trading at a 34.8% discount from its all-time high, presenting a potential investment opportunity due to significant short-term price upside potential [1]. Financial Performance - Government revenues increased by 60.4% year over year to $730 million, while commercial revenues surged by 81.8% annually to $677 million, with a total customer count of 954 as of December 31 [4]. - The company is projected to achieve first-quarter revenues of $1.53 billion, indicating an 8.5% sequential growth, and expects full-year revenues of approximately $7.19 billion, reflecting a 61% year-over-year growth [12]. Business Model and Strategy - Palantir's core customer base includes large government and corporate clients seeking tailored AI/ML services, contributing to a 21.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2020 to 2024 [5]. - The launch of the Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) in 2023 has accelerated growth in the commercial sector, allowing clients to analyze data effectively and adapt to business goals [6][8]. - AIP provides access to various large language models (LLMs), enabling organizations to transform data into actionable insights, reducing dependency on government contracts [7]. AI Integration and Market Position - Palantir's AI strategy integrates its Foundry and Gotham platforms, promoting AI adoption across government and commercial sectors, particularly in data-intensive industries like defense, healthcare, and finance [9][10]. - The company is involved in significant defense initiatives, such as the Department of Defense's Open DAGIR project, enhancing military operations through AI solutions [10]. Customer Acquisition and Growth - AIP boot camps have successfully engaged over 1,000 companies, showcasing the platform's capabilities and facilitating customer acquisition across various sectors [11]. - The modular sales approach allows clients to purchase specific product components, lowering entry barriers and expanding the U.S. commercial customer base [14][15]. Future Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 indicates revenues of $7.22 billion and earnings per share of $1.34, representing year-over-year increases of 61.3% and 78.7%, respectively [16]. - For 2027, revenues are expected to reach $10.11 billion, with earnings per share projected at $1.89, indicating a 40% year-over-year growth [17]. - Long-term growth potential is strong, with earnings per share growth estimated at 49.5% compared to 16.3% for the S&P 500 [18]. Price Target and Investment Thesis - The short-term average price target for PLTR suggests a potential increase of 48.2% from the last closing price of $135.24, with a maximum upside of 92.3% and a downside of 33.3% [19]. - Palantir holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating confidence in its ability to capitalize on the AI boom through robust execution and a leading product portfolio [20].