Willdan Stock Before Q4 Earnings: Time to Lock Gains or Stay Put?

Core Insights - Willdan Group, Inc. (WLDN) is set to report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on February 26, 2026, after market close [1] Financial Performance - In the last reported quarter, Willdan achieved record performance with contract revenue increasing by 15% year over year to $182 million and net revenue rising by 26% year over year to $95 million, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 11.5% [2] - Gross profit grew by 30% year over year to $67.1 million, while adjusted EBITDA surged by 53% year over year to $23.1 million, achieving a margin of 24% of net revenue [2] - Adjusted EPS increased by 65.8% year over year to $1.21, surpassing the consensus estimate by 49.4% [2][3] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth-quarter EPS remains unchanged at 79 cents, indicating a 5.3% growth from the year-ago reported EPS of 75 cents [4] - The consensus revenue estimate for the fourth quarter is $87.5 million, suggesting a 39.3% year-over-year decline [4] - For 2026, revenues are expected to increase by 4.8% year over year, with EPS projected to grow by 9.6% [5] Market Position and Performance - WLDN has consistently surpassed earnings estimates in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 58.1% [3] - The stock has rallied 19.4% over the past three months, outperforming key peers and the broader Zacks Business - Services industry [19][20] Key Growth Drivers - The strength of Willdan's Energy segment, which constitutes approximately 85% of total revenue, is expected to support Q4 results despite anticipated revenue decline [9] - Recent contract wins in energy and infrastructure, along with the APG acquisition, are anticipated to contribute positively to revenues [10] - Utility programs and government work continue to provide recurring revenue visibility, supporting steady demand [11] Profitability Outlook - Management has guided for full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $77-$78 million and net revenues of $360-$365 million, indicating continued margin discipline [13] - Operating leverage from revenue growth and effective cost control are expected to drive margin expansion [14] - However, integration costs from acquisitions and ongoing investments may temper margin expansion [15] Valuation and Investment Stance - WLDN stock is currently trading at a premium valuation compared to its industry [23] - The near-term outlook appears balanced, with recent share price increases suggesting that much of the optimism is already priced in, leading to a Hold stance for now [24]