Evercore ISI Reiterates Outperform on The Trade Desk Ahead of Earnings

Core Viewpoint - Evercore ISI maintains an Outperform rating and a $70 price target for The Trade Desk, anticipating a modest earnings beat in Q4 and constructive guidance for the future [1]. Group 1: Earnings Expectations - The Trade Desk is expected to deliver a modest earnings beat in Q4, with guidance likely to be in line, indicating a favorable outlook for Q1 [1]. - The firm estimates that gross spend excluding political ads decelerated by 2 percentage points in Q4 2024, following 8-point decelerations in both Q3 and Q2 2024 [3]. Group 2: Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Shares of The Trade Desk have declined approximately 33% year to date, leading to muted market expectations, prompting Evercore to reiterate its Tactical Outperform positioning [2]. - Despite some softness in the consumer packaged goods (CPG) category and increased competition from Amazon DSP, The Trade Desk has enhanced its value propositions, such as Audience Unlimited, to drive higher platform engagement and spending [2]. Group 3: Profitability Outlook - Evercore expects Street EBITDA estimates to be achievable and aligned with management guidance, implying roughly 9% quarter-over-quarter expense growth, which is above recent seasonal norms [3].