DraftKings Investor Day: Analyst Sees TAM Growth Potential, Eyes FY28 Forecast Updates

Core Insights - DraftKings shares are under downward pressure, with expectations for management to discuss the DraftKings Predictions initiative and medium-term financial targets [1] - The company is anticipated to provide insights into the total addressable market (TAM) for prediction markets, along with updated TAM for online sports betting (OSB) and iGaming, and revised revenue and profitability outlooks through 2028 and potentially 2030 [1][2] Revenue and EBITDA Estimates - Previous FY28 targets included $7.1 billion in revenue and $2.1 billion in EBITDA, with expectations that the revenue outlook may be raised to approximately $8.5 billion–$9.1 billion, including around $8.2 billion from core sports betting and about $650 million from prediction market fees [3] - EBITDA expectations for 2028 could be revised lower to around $1.5 billion–$1.7 billion, with approximately $1.5 billion from the core business and $100 million–$150 million from Predictions [4] Total Addressable Market Growth - The total addressable market for prediction markets is estimated to potentially reach $1.3 trillion in total volume, with projections for the market to grow to around $600 billion by 2028, and DraftKings potentially capturing 10%–20% of that share [5] - The company is expected to focus on long-term growth opportunities and the advantages of operating a vertically integrated exchange, despite a steeper near-term J-curve [6]