美联储“大鸽派”沃勒感叹：美国经济，看不懂

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller adjusted his dovish stance, emphasizing the confusing signals from the U.S. economy during his speech at the NABE Economic Policy Conference [1][3] Group 1: Economic Signals - Waller noted that the U.S. economy is currently sending contradictory signals, with economic growth occurring alongside zero job growth, a situation he has never encountered before in his career [3][4] - He expressed uncertainty about whether job growth will return this year or if the economy is in an unprecedented phase of activity [3] Group 2: Employment Data - The January non-farm payroll report showed that the number of jobs added was higher than the total for the previous nine months combined, leading Waller to consider a more positive outlook if February data continues this trend [2][3] - The annual revision of the non-farm employment data for 2025 indicates only 181,000 jobs will be added throughout the year, averaging just 15,000 per month, which may lead to significant downward revisions in the coming months [3][4] Group 3: Future Projections - Waller warned that 2025 could see the weakest job creation since 2002, excluding recession periods, and if the final data is revised to negative, it would mark only the third occurrence since 1945 [4] - He indicated that if February's employment figures align more closely with the 2025 projections, he would be more inclined to advocate for interest rate cuts, with the likelihood of outcomes being nearly a coin toss [4] Group 4: Tariff Implications - Waller mentioned the Supreme Court's ruling against tariffs imposed by former President Trump under the IEEPA, which could positively impact consumer and business demand, though the extent and duration of this effect remain uncertain [4] - He questioned whether businesses would actually lower prices in response to reduced costs from tariffs or if prices would remain unchanged due to new tariffs imposed by Trump [4]