【建投策略】怎么看待马年年初的商品机会？

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent surge in oil prices, reaching a six-month high, and the rebound in gold and silver prices, attributed to geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, as well as the conflict between the US Supreme Court and the President over tariffs, reflecting a deepening trend of de-globalization and resource nationalism [3][25]. - The US Supreme Court ruled that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were illegal, which has significant implications for the future of US tariff policy [4][26]. - The ruling redefines the constitutional boundaries of tariff authority, indicating that the power to impose tariffs belongs to Congress, potentially leading to a refund pressure of up to hundreds of billions of dollars on the government [4][26]. Group 2 - The article outlines two potential scenarios regarding the future of US tariff policy: a pessimistic view where tariff threats persist under new frameworks, and an optimistic view where the ruling creates legal barriers for future presidents to impose tariffs without congressional approval, potentially leading to a more stable global trade environment [5][27]. - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran remains tense, with military action still a possibility despite ongoing diplomatic talks, which has heightened risks in the oil market [6][28]. - Brent crude oil prices have risen to approximately $70-72 per barrel, reflecting increased geopolitical premiums and market consensus leaning towards a lower probability of reconciliation between the US and Iran [7][29]. Group 3 - The domestic macroeconomic environment is entering a critical observation period ahead of the "Two Sessions," with financial data indicating a rebound in M2 and M1 growth rates, driven primarily by government financing [8][30]. - The article identifies potential investment opportunities in domestic commodities, particularly in products that are currently at low price levels and have upward supply elasticity, such as caustic soda [8][30]. - In the agricultural sector, the palm oil market is showing signs of a bullish trend due to significant production declines in Malaysia and geopolitical factors affecting supply [9][31].