春节假期重点品种风险解析

Macro - The international financial market remained stable during the Spring Festival, with a significant event being the U.S. Supreme Court ruling against Trump, which may reduce his influence on the global economy [2][17] - Trump is forced to impose a 15% tariff under the 1974 Trade Act, with a maximum delay of 150 days requiring Congressional approval, indicating increasing limitations on his trade policies [2][17] Stock Index - Chinese financial data shows proactive government financing and optimistic short-term liquidity, with a significant increase in non-bank institution deposits and a sharp decline in household deposit growth [3][18] - The technology sector remains a key focus, with AI and robotics gaining attention, while the U.S. stock market shows a mixed performance in AI, with companies like Nvidia and TSMC remaining stable [3][18] - A-shares are expected to rebound after the market opens, with themes like robotics, AI computing power, new energy, and aerospace remaining active [3][18] Oil - Oil prices during the Spring Festival were primarily influenced by U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, with the U.S. military's significant troop buildup in the Middle East being the largest since 2003 [4][19] - The negotiations have a time constraint, with the U.S. aiming for an agreement within two weeks, while Iran may conduct military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, potentially increasing oil price premiums [4][19] - The cash premium for Middle Eastern oil has recently reached $1 per barrel, with rising freight costs, indicating a strong regional market compared to Europe and the U.S. [4][19] Fuel Oil - Post-Spring Festival, fuel oil prices are driven by geopolitical premiums and domestic resumption of work, with strong support from rising oil prices due to U.S.-Iran tensions [21][22] - Domestic demand for marine fuel is expected to gradually recover as work resumes, with low inventories in Singapore and Zhoushan leading to stronger spot prices [21][22] Asphalt - The stalemate in U.S.-Iran negotiations and military buildup has led to a more than 4% increase in Brent crude prices, raising the valuation of asphalt [23] - Logistics recovery and pre-stocking for infrastructure projects in southern China are expected to boost demand, with a positive market sentiment [23] Methanol - Geopolitical risks eased before the holiday, leading to a significant drop in methanol prices, but renewed tensions during the holiday may influence prices upward [24] Urea - India's RCF urea import tender received bids totaling over 3.07 million tons, with prices around CFR $512 to $508 per ton, indicating strong demand despite a significant price gap between domestic and international markets [8][25] - Domestic urea prices remained stable during the holiday, with slight increases from some manufacturers, and current inventory levels have normalized compared to historical averages [8][25] Copper - Future attention is required on specific measures regarding U.S. tariffs and potential aggressive trade or fiscal policies that Trump may adopt for the midterm elections [26] Aluminum - The London aluminum market showed a trend of initial decline followed by recovery during the Spring Festival, influenced by news of Trump considering the removal of aluminum tariffs [27] Gold and Silver - The release of December PCE data and January FOMC minutes suggests a reduced likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may exert downward pressure on gold and silver prices [28] Platinum and Palladium - Prices for platinum and palladium rose significantly during the Spring Festival due to increased market risk aversion stemming from uncertainties in U.S.-Iran relations [29] Cotton - The NCC projects a 3.2% year-on-year decrease in U.S. spring cotton planting area to 9 million acres, with strong export data supporting higher prices [30] Soybean Meal - Positive demand factors, including high crushing data and rumors of China purchasing 8 million tons of U.S. soybeans post-holiday, contributed to an upward trend in U.S. soybean prices during the Spring Festival [31]