世界黄金协会美洲区CEO：全球央行连续16年净买入，定价逻辑生变

Core Viewpoint - The global gold market is undergoing a structural transformation driven by central bank demand and risk aversion, making gold an essential liquidity buffer in asset allocation [1]. Group 1: Key Drivers of Gold Prices - In 2026, the primary driver for gold valuation is the increased risk and uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment, influenced by geopolitical tensions and financial market pressures [2]. - The demand for gold as a high-quality safe-haven asset has significantly risen due to these factors, alongside a decrease in the opportunity cost of holding gold as the international situation pressures the US dollar [2]. - Despite recent market volatility, gold's stable price performance has attracted substantial cash inflows, creating positive momentum for its growth [2]. Group 2: Relationship with Real Interest Rates - The traditional negative correlation between gold prices and US 10-year real interest rates has weakened, primarily due to other supporting factors like geopolitical risks and strong central bank purchases offsetting the negative impact of rising real rates [3][4]. - The relationship between gold and real interest rates has not disappeared; rather, other macroeconomic forces have become more critical, diminishing the dominance of real yields [4]. Group 3: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks have maintained a net buying trend for 16 consecutive years, indicating a significant structural change in the gold market [6]. - Although central bank gold purchases slowed in 2025 to 863 tons, this figure remains well above historical averages, reflecting ongoing interest in gold for its crisis performance and inflation-hedging properties [6]. - Emerging market central banks hold about 15% of their foreign exchange reserves in gold, which is half of that of developed markets, suggesting substantial growth potential in future gold demand [7]. Group 4: Gold as a High-Quality Liquid Asset - Gold is increasingly viewed as a major competitor to US Treasuries in the realm of high-quality liquid assets (HQLA), despite not being officially classified as such under Basel III [8]. - During market stress, gold has demonstrated superior liquidity compared to long-term US Treasuries, characterized by deep market depth and stable bid-ask spreads [9]. Group 5: Gold's Role in Diversified Investment Portfolios - In a world of persistent inflation volatility, traditional 60/40 investment portfolios are struggling, and gold is seen as a stabilizing asset that enhances diversification and reduces drawdowns [11]. - Historical analysis indicates that gold improves risk-adjusted returns, particularly in environments where stock-bond correlations rise due to inflation shocks or monetary policy tightening [11]. Group 6: Market Dynamics and Demand Measurement - The surge in over-the-counter (OTC) purchases and unallocated gold accumulation has prompted the World Gold Council to refine its methodologies for capturing this "hidden" demand [12]. - While OTC transactions can significantly influence prices during specific periods, the overall gold market is shaped by a diverse range of participants, including jewelry consumers, technology sectors, and various investors [12].