原料端支撑强，聚酯链补涨有分化

Group 1: Chemical Industry Overview - The chemical sector has shown strong performance since 2026, with increasing transaction volumes and institutional investment, particularly in the aromatics and polyester supply chains, indicating a potential bottoming out of the industry [2][17] - The industry is expected to enter a new upward cycle driven by policy support and tightening supply [2][17] Group 2: Ethylene Glycol Market - Ethylene glycol production capacity is set to increase with new projects coming online, leading to heightened supply pressure in the market [2][17] - As of February 12, 2026, the average operating rate for the ethylene glycol industry was 62.55%, which is an increase of 2.14 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024, despite being lower than 2025 [2][17] - Ethylene glycol's cumulative production reached 2.3751 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.37%, marking a recent high for the same period [2][17] Group 3: Inventory and Supply Dynamics - Social inventory of ethylene glycol rose to 2.0186 million tons by February 12, 2026, a 10.84% increase from early January, exceeding market expectations [3][18] - The upstream production sector is experiencing inventory pressure due to logistics disruptions post-Spring Festival, leading to limited inventory transfer to downstream sectors [4][18] Group 4: Cost and Price Trends - International crude oil prices have shown an upward trend, which has increased production costs for ethylene glycol, although this has not yet fully reflected in market prices due to the high inventory situation [6][20] - The market is expected to maintain a balance between high inventory pressure and cost support, with short-term price increases likely to be constrained [6][20] Group 5: PTA Market Outlook - The PTA market is currently experiencing a seasonal downturn in demand, but a longer-term view suggests a tightening supply situation due to a lack of new capacity additions [6][23] - The domestic PTA industry is projected to see a significant increase in demand due to ongoing polyester capacity expansions, with a total of 516,000 tons planned for 2026 [6][23] Group 6: PX Market Dynamics - The PX supply side is characterized by stable existing capacity with no major new installations expected in the near term, leading to a tightening supply outlook [12][27] - As of February 13, 2026, the domestic PX production was 758,100 tons, with a utilization rate of 91.65%, indicating a slight increase in production [12][27] Group 7: Bottle Chip Market - The domestic bottle chip capacity is expected to expand significantly, with nearly 900,000 tons added from 2023 to 2025, and an additional 70,000 tons planned for 2026 [11][25] - Recent months have seen a notable increase in processing fees for bottle chips, reflecting a recovery in profitability as the market stabilizes [11][24]