光大期货0224黄金点评：美伊局势紧张，黄金延续强势运行

Core Viewpoint - COMEX gold prices have shown a significant upward trend, closing at $5247.9 per ounce with a 3.29% increase, driven by market reactions to U.S. economic data and geopolitical tensions [2][7]. Market Analysis - The gold market experienced two phases during the Spring Festival. The first phase was characterized by a market focus on the re-evaluation of the Federal Reserve's policy, influenced by unexpectedly strong U.S. non-farm payroll data and persistent inflation as indicated by the CPI. This led to a temporary drop in gold prices below the psychological level of $5000 per ounce [2][7]. - The second phase saw a recovery in gold prices due to rising geopolitical tensions, particularly with the U.S. military deployment in the Middle East and concerns surrounding the Iran nuclear negotiations. This was compounded by disappointing U.S. GDP growth estimates for Q4 2025 at 1.4% and weak PMI data, which reignited "stagflation" fears [2][7]. Future Outlook - The themes of "de-dollarization" and "Federal Reserve rate cuts" are expected to dominate the market narrative for the year. The complexity and persistence of geopolitical issues are likely to prevent a significant decline in gold prices, suggesting a short-term bullish outlook for gold [3][8].