专访连平：天量定期存款将到期，如何为实体经济“添薪”蓄力

Core Insights - The 2026 Guangdong Province High-Quality Development Conference focused on the collaborative development of manufacturing and service industries, emphasizing the role of financial innovation in promoting industrial integration [2] - A significant amount of time deposits, estimated between 72 trillion to 90 trillion yuan, will mature in 2026, raising questions about how these funds will be redirected to support industrial integration and technological innovation [5][6] - The release of these funds presents a historic opportunity for banks to adopt differentiated strategies to retain customers and lower funding costs, thereby directing more resources towards high-quality development sectors [2][5] Financial Landscape - The total amount of maturing time deposits in 2026 is projected to be between 72 trillion and 90 trillion yuan, with approximately 49 trillion to 61 trillion yuan from households and 23 trillion to 29 trillion yuan from enterprises [6][7] - The growth rate of time deposits in China has exceeded 10% annually over the past three years, with a total balance of 179.6 trillion yuan as of the end of 2025 [6] Factors Influencing Deposit Behavior - The preference for long-term time deposits has been driven by low-risk tolerance among investors, particularly among older demographics seeking to preserve capital [7][8] - The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent economic uncertainties have led to an increase in precautionary savings, with many individuals opting for time deposits as a safe asset [8][9] - Regulatory changes in asset management and a downturn in the real estate market have also contributed to the shift towards time deposits [9][10] Potential Fund Allocation Post-Maturity - Upon maturity, a portion of these funds is expected to remain within the banking system, while some may flow into private banking products, bonds, and equity markets, depending on market conditions [10][11] - The likelihood of a large-scale migration of deposits to capital markets is low due to the conservative risk profile of depositors, but some funds may seek higher returns in stable investment vehicles [11][12] Economic Implications - The movement of these funds into capital markets could enhance liquidity, stimulate market activity, and support direct financing for enterprises, particularly benefiting small and medium-sized enterprises [14] - A portion of the released funds may also enter the consumer market, potentially boosting demand in sectors like retail and tourism [14] Banking Sector Impact - The upcoming maturity of time deposits is expected to improve bank performance in the short term by reducing funding costs, but may also lead to long-term challenges as banks face pressure on asset yields [19][20] - Large state-owned banks are better positioned to retain maturing deposits due to their extensive customer base and resources, while smaller banks may struggle to compete [20][21] Strategies for Customer Retention - Different types of banks are adopting varied strategies to retain customers amid the maturing deposit wave, with state-owned banks focusing on comprehensive service offerings and smaller banks emphasizing local engagement and innovative products [21][23] - The competition is shifting from interest rate-based retention to a focus on overall service quality and customer experience [23]