【债市观察】节前资金面平稳十债稳定运行在1.80%下方 海外市场动荡美债收益率下行逾10BP

Core Viewpoint - The central bank has increased liquidity support ahead of the Spring Festival, leading to a stable funding environment and a downward trend in bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping below 1.80% [1][4]. Market Overview - During the last trading week before the Spring Festival (February 9 to February 14, 2026), the central bank's actions resulted in a stable funding environment, with a strong willingness among institutions to hold bonds over the holiday [1]. - The 10-year government bond yield fell to a low of 1.7675% before rebounding slightly due to profit-taking [1][4]. - The bond yield curve showed declines across various maturities, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 2.03 basis points to 1.7899% as of February 14 [2][3]. Bond Market Activity - The bond market exhibited strong performance, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching a three-month low of 1.793% before stabilizing [4]. - The central bank conducted significant liquidity injections, including a 4000 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, contributing to a positive sentiment in the bond market [4][12]. Issuance in the Primary Market - In the week leading up to the Spring Festival, a total of 69 bonds were issued, amounting to 649.14 billion yuan, including 3 government bonds worth 200 billion yuan [6]. - For the upcoming week (February 24 to February 28, 2026), a planned issuance of 34 bonds totaling 660.42 billion yuan is expected, with 3 government bonds worth 385 billion yuan [6]. International Market Context - The U.S. bond market saw a decline in yields, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping by 19 basis points to 4.03% as of February 23, influenced by lower inflation data and increased risk aversion [7]. - The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for January showed a lower-than-expected increase, which may pave the way for lower interest rates in the future [9][10]. Institutional Perspectives - Analysts suggest that the bond market may experience seasonal opportunities in the first half of the year, driven by stable funding conditions and increased allocation from insurance and wealth management products [18][19]. - The bond market's performance post-Spring Festival will depend on macroeconomic fundamentals, policy signals, supply-demand dynamics, and stock market performance [19].