国泰君安期货：节后归来，一文理清马年开市新变量

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the macroeconomic changes during the Chinese New Year holiday and their potential impact on the domestic futures market as trading resumes after the break [2]. Group 1: Key Events - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled some tariffs invalid, leading to a temporary 10% global tariff, which was quickly raised to 15%. This creates a short "policy window" before new tariffs take effect on February 24, potentially boosting export risk appetite, but does not alleviate trade pressure on China [3][16]. - Tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated, with the U.S. increasing troop presence and Iran conducting military exercises. This "tense but controlled" situation supports international oil prices and may affect domestic chemical products linked to crude oil costs [4][17]. - There are rumors of a potential visit by the U.S. President to China at the end of March, which could lead to increased pressure in trade negotiations. Market participants should monitor developments in trade and technology that may introduce uncertainty into global trade dynamics [6][18]. - Key revisions in U.S. economic data showed a significant downward adjustment in non-farm employment for 2025 and that Q4 GDP growth did not outpace inflation. This may temper concerns about an overheating economy and influence expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy [7][19]. Group 2: Focused Sectors - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing renewed demand due to the rise of humanoid robots, which is expected to increase the long-term demand for copper, aluminum, and rare earth materials. The overall environment is supportive, with strong international precious metals and tight supply-demand dynamics [8][20][21]. - The oil and chemical sector is benefiting from rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, which directly supports downstream chemical products. Potential changes in domestic naphtha consumption tax and seasonal industry maintenance may also affect supply [9][22]. - The photovoltaic sector is seeing positive policy changes, with efforts to eliminate low-price competition and promote quality over quantity. The expiration of the "201 tariffs" on solar components may lower market entry costs for U.S. exports, providing a marginal benefit [10][11][23][24].