海外供给扰动叠加库存低位，煤炭板块迎来结构性修复窗口，煤炭ETF（515220）盘中涨超3.2%

Group 1 - The core catalyst for the current coal market is the overseas supply disruptions, particularly from Indonesia, which significantly impacts global coal trade dynamics [2] - The coal sector is experiencing a structural repair window due to low inventory levels and supply constraints, leading to a notable increase in coal ETF (515220) prices [1][3] - The domestic coal supply is tightening due to seasonal reductions in production and ongoing maintenance at state-owned mines, resulting in a decrease in port inventories [3] Group 2 - The coal sector is supported by dual logic: high dividend yields providing a safety margin and overseas supply disruptions creating price elasticity [4] - The market is shifting focus from domestic demand fluctuations to overseas supply elasticity, which is becoming a critical variable for price assessments [2] - The coal industry is transitioning from a phase of rapid expansion to one of high-quality development, with increased industry concentration enhancing the profitability stability of leading companies [3]