Better Artificial Intelligence Stock: Navitas vs. Arm

Core Viewpoint - Navitas Semiconductor has experienced a significant stock price increase of 188% over the past year, driven by a strategic pivot towards AI infrastructure, but faces challenges in revenue generation during this transition [1][2][6]. Group 1: Company Overview - Navitas specializes in gallium nitride chips, which are more powerful and efficient than traditional silicon chips, and is a leader in this technology space [3]. - The company's current market capitalization is $1.9 billion, with a stock price of $8.11 [4]. Group 2: Strategic Pivot - Navitas is undergoing a strategic pivot termed "Navitas 2.0," shifting focus from consumer and mobile markets to higher-power segments such as AI data centers and electric vehicles [6]. - Revenue projections indicate a decline, with expectations of $7 million in Q4 2025, down from $10 million in Q3 and $22 million in Q3 2024, and an annual revenue forecast of $36 million, down from $45 million the previous fiscal year [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the anticipated revenue decline, Navitas is optimistic about future growth, projecting $130 million in revenue and $18 million in earnings by 2028, supported by partnerships with major players like Nvidia [7]. - Analysts express mixed views on the pivot, noting the competitive landscape in the AI data center market, which may delay revenue growth until 2027 or 2028 [8]. Group 4: Comparison with Arm Holdings - Arm Holdings, a competitor, has seen a 13% increase in stock price year-to-date but a 21% decrease over the past year, positioning it as a more stable investment option currently [5]. - Arm dominates the CPU design market for mobile phones, with its technology present in approximately 99% of smartphones, and is expanding into AI workloads, expecting over half of its revenue to come from non-mobile licenses by the end of 2025 [11]. Group 5: Financial Performance - Arm's data center royalties have doubled year-over-year, capturing about 50% market share among hyperscalers for AI data center CPUs, a significant increase from 18% in 2024 [12]. - Analysts project an 18% revenue increase for Arm in Q4 2026, with expectations of 50% compound annual growth for its data center segment through 2030 [13]. Group 6: Analyst Ratings - Wall Street analysts rate Arm as a consensus buy with a median price target of $147.50, indicating a potential 17% growth, although concerns about its high valuation persist [14].