研报掘金丨信达证券：哈尔斯盈利能力有望逐步改善，维持“买入”评级

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that despite a slight year-on-year decline in the procurement amount from the top five customers of Hars, particularly a significant drop of 21.3% from YETI, the overall outlook for Hars remains positive due to anticipated growth in supply amounts to YETI in 2026 and improvements in manufacturing capabilities [1] Group 1: Customer Performance - The procurement amount from Hars' top five customers in Q1-3 of 2025 decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with YETI experiencing a notable decline of 21.3% [1] - YETI's overall revenue from cups and bottles is expected to decline only by 1% for the entire year, suggesting that the drop in procurement is primarily due to changes in order rhythm caused by supply chain shifts and a reduction in inventory levels, with Q4 inventory down by 6% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Future Growth Potential - Hars is expected to see significant growth in supply amounts to YETI in 2026, supported by YETI's own sales guidance [1] - The company's enhanced delivery capabilities in Thailand and accelerated new product development for Stanley, along with expansion into non-US markets, are likely to lead to a substantial increase in market share [1] Group 3: Brand Development and Profitability - Owala and Brumate are experiencing rapid growth, with both being core suppliers, and orders are expected to increase alongside customer growth in 2026 [1] - The company is focusing on multi-dimensional brand building, with OBM expected to continue high growth; signs of recovery in manufacturing outsourcing are evident, leading to gradual improvement in profitability [1] Group 4: Financial Projections - Following recent stock incentives and optimistic performance targets for employee shareholding, the projected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is estimated to be 70 million, 300 million, and 420 million respectively, with corresponding PE valuations of 61.2X, 14.5X, and 10.4X [1] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the company based on these projections [1]