Omdia：OLED与LCD产能加速折旧 将推动FPD盈利能力提升

Core Insights - The depreciation rate of flat panel display (FPD) manufacturing equipment is accelerating, which will alleviate cost pressures for OLED and LCD panel manufacturers [1] - Omdia forecasts that from 2021 to 2028, depreciation will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.3%, with fully depreciated FPD manufacturing capacity nearly doubling from approximately 160 million square meters to nearly 300 million square meters [1] Group 1 - Depreciated LCD capacity accounts for about two-thirds of all FPD capacity and is expected to grow by 60% from 2021 to 2028, driven by the rapid construction of 10.5 generation factories between 2017 and 2022 [4] - By 2028, the depreciation of 10.5 generation assets will rise from zero in 2024 to nearly 80% [4] - The OLED industry is showing a similar trend, particularly in South Korea's white OLED (WOLED) and quantum dot OLED (QD OLED) production facilities, which are expected to approach full depreciation by 2028, significantly reducing operating costs and enabling sustainable profitability in large-size OLED TVs and displays [4] Group 2 - The depreciation ratio of RGB fine metal mask (FMM) OLED capacity, primarily used for smartphone panels, is projected to increase from less than 10% in 2021 to over 60% by 2028 [4] - Depreciation costs can account for one-third of total manufacturing costs across various applications, from 6th generation OLED smartphone modules to 10.5 generation 75-inch LCD TVs [4] - Recent slowdowns in investments for new LCD and OLED factories have led to a rapid decline in non-depreciated assets, allowing manufacturers to operate factories at lower utilization rates, produce a more diverse range of products, and maintain profitability in a highly competitive market [4] Group 3 - New 8.6 generation RGB OLED factories being built in South Korea and China are notable exceptions to this trend, as they are unlikely to benefit from depreciation until nearly 2030 [5] - This situation will encourage manufacturers to diversify production and maintain high capacity utilization to spread high fixed costs across more panels [5]