煤炭ETF（515220）大涨超3%，展望后市：煤价中枢有望稳步回升

Core Viewpoint - The coal ETF (515220) has surged over 3%, with expectations for a steady recovery in coal prices in the future [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Outlook - By 2026, supply growth is expected to significantly decline compared to previous periods, while demand is anticipated to improve, particularly in 2026 [1] - During the Spring Festival, both supply and demand for thermal coal weakened, but demand is expected to gradually recover post-holiday, supported by lower inventory levels [1] - For coking coal, although downstream demand has decreased near the Spring Festival, overall inventory remains at a medium-low level, with expectations for a rebound in demand during the peak season after the holiday [1] Group 2: Industry Profitability and Valuation - The industry’s profitability outlook is expected to improve by 2026, with notable advantages in valuation and dividend yield for the sector [1] - The coal ETF (515220) tracks the CSI Coal Index (399998), which selects listed companies involved in coal mining and processing, reflecting the overall performance of the coal industry [1] - The index employs an equal-weight distribution method to represent the diversified characteristics of the industry, exhibiting high dividend yields and cyclical volatility [1]