避险情绪提振，金价震荡上涨

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices, driven by economic data and geopolitical events, indicate a potential long-term bullish trend for gold as a safe-haven asset amid rising inflation and geopolitical uncertainties [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Data - The U.S. Q4 GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter initial value is 1.4%, below expectations of 2.8% and the previous value of 4.4%, impacted by a 43-day government shutdown [2][3]. - Core PCE for December 2025 rose to 3% year-on-year, higher than expectations and previous values, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [2]. - The U.S. manufacturing PMI fell from 52.4 to 51.2, and the services PMI decreased from 52.7 to 52.3, both below expectations, suggesting a marginal slowdown in economic activity [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The U.S. Supreme Court overturned the IEEPA tariffs, reducing the effective tax rate from 16% to 9%, but former President Trump announced retaliatory measures, raising tariffs back to 15% [3]. - The FOMC meeting minutes revealed a divergence among members regarding interest rate guidance, with some suggesting the possibility of rate hikes if inflation remains above 2% [3]. - The Russian central bank sold 300,000 ounces of gold in January to cover budget deficits, marking the first reduction since October, although the total value of gold reserves increased by 23% to $402.7 billion due to rising gold prices [3]. Group 3: Gold Market Outlook - Gold prices have rebounded to the $5200 level after a period of decline, with expectations of increased volatility due to upcoming options expirations and external factors like a strengthening dollar [4]. - The long-term outlook for gold remains strong, supported by monetary expansion, fiscal deficit monetization, and increasing demand for gold as a safe asset amid global geopolitical tensions [4]. - The combination of a potential Fed rate cut cycle, heightened global uncertainties, and a trend towards de-dollarization is expected to provide long-term support for gold prices [4].