黄金周报｜避险情绪提振 金价震荡上涨

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices, driven by economic data and geopolitical events, indicate a potential long-term bullish trend for gold as a safe-haven asset amid rising inflation and geopolitical uncertainties [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Data - The U.S. Q4 GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter initial value is 1.4%, below expectations of 2.8% and previous value of 4.4%, impacted by a 43-day government shutdown leading to a significant drop in government spending [2][3]. - Private consumption and investment growth reached 2.4%, with AI-related investments accelerating [2]. - The core PCE for December 2025 rose to 3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and previous values, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The U.S. Supreme Court overturned the IEEPA tariffs, reducing the effective tax rate from 16% to 9%, but former President Trump announced retaliatory measures, raising tariffs back to 15% on multiple countries [3]. - The FOMC meeting minutes revealed divisions among members regarding potential interest rate hikes, with some suggesting that if inflation remains above 2%, rate increases may be appropriate [3]. - The Russian central bank sold 300,000 ounces of gold in January to cover budget deficits, valued at $1.4 billion, marking the first reduction since October of the previous year [3]. Group 3: Gold Market Outlook - Gold prices have rebounded to the $5,200 mark after initial declines during the Spring Festival, with expectations of increased volatility due to upcoming options expirations [4]. - The long-term outlook for gold remains strong, supported by monetary expansion, fiscal deficit monetization, and increasing demand for gold as a safe asset amid global geopolitical tensions [4]. - The combination of a potential Fed rate cut cycle, heightened global uncertainties, and a trend towards de-dollarization is expected to provide long-term support for gold prices [4].