Barclays slashes sales forecasts for Novo's CagriSema by more than 80%

Core Viewpoint - Barclays has significantly reduced its peak sales forecast for Novo Nordisk's obesity drug CagriSema from $12 billion to $2 billion due to disappointing trial results [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Forecast and Market Impact - The reduction in sales forecast indicates a substantial setback for Novo Nordisk in its competition against U.S. rival Eli Lilly in the obesity market [2]. - Novo's late-stage trial data revealed that CagriSema underperformed compared to Eli Lilly's Zepbound, which launched in late 2023, with Zepbound showing better weight loss results than previously reported by Lilly [3]. - Following the announcement, Novo's shares fell by 16%, erasing gains from its successful weight-loss drug Wegovy, while Eli Lilly's shares increased by 5% [3]. Group 2: Future Prospects and Analyst Sentiment - Novo plans to launch CagriSema next year, anticipating U.S. FDA approval by the end of this year; however, analysts from Barclays, Jefferies, and others express doubts about the drug's commercial viability based on the recent data [4].