马年全年展望：三重支撑夯实基础，结构性重估可期

Market Overview - During the Spring Festival period (February 16 to 23), the Hong Kong stock market showed a fluctuating upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.94% [1] - The materials and energy sectors performed strongly, with increases of 7.37% and 4.66% respectively, driven by rising international precious metal and energy prices alongside heightened geopolitical risks [1] - In contrast, both essential and non-essential consumer sectors experienced slight declines, indicating cautious expectations regarding the pace of consumer recovery [1] Sector Performance - The technology sector underperformed overall, with the Hang Seng Technology Index only increasing by 0.47% for the week, although it showed signs of recovery with a significant rise of 3.64% on February 23 [1] - The structural characteristics observed in the Hong Kong market during the holiday period may also reflect in the A-share market post-holiday, with cyclical industries linked to resource sectors expected to gain traction [1][2] A-share Market Outlook - The A-share market is anticipated to focus on two main lines post-holiday: resource products and technology manufacturing [2] - The recent market differentiation is not merely a short-term rotation but reflects a shift in risk preference from high-valuation growth sectors to more comfortable valuation ranges [3] - The strong performance of resource sectors indicates a growing consensus among global investors regarding the strategic value of assets like precious metals and oil amid geopolitical risks and a weak dollar [5] Economic and Industry Fundamentals - The Chinese economy is at a convergence point between the bottom of the inventory cycle and a new round of industrial upgrades, with industrial profits expected to improve in 2026 [6] - High-tech manufacturing is projected to be a core support for profit recovery, with significant growth in profits expected in sectors like electronic equipment and smart consumer devices [7] - The liquidity environment remains supportive, with a stable monetary policy and a trend of declining risk-free interest rates enhancing the attractiveness of equity assets [7] Long-term Market Drivers - The market's cautious expectations regarding economic growth may lay the groundwork for future recovery, with policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption being prioritized [8] - The ongoing evolution of new industries, particularly in technology, is expected to support long-term growth, with no significant bubbles observed in the technology sector despite recent valuation increases [8] - The market is likely to experience structural revaluation supported by a recovering profit cycle, declining interest rates, and the acceleration of new productive forces transitioning from policy planning to industrial implementation [9]