长安期货张晨：地缘局势紧张提振风险偏好，甲醇强势反弹

Market Overview - Methanol futures experienced weak fluctuations before the Spring Festival, with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East easing, leading the market to return to fundamental trading. The last trading day before the holiday saw the main contract close at 2188 CNY/ton, the lowest since late January [5][27] - Following the holiday, methanol futures opened higher, gaining over 3% in early trading, recovering losses from the previous week [5][27] Supply Side - Domestic methanol production remained high, with January output at 9.0024 million tons, a decrease of 66,800 tons from December but still the second-highest in recent years. February production is expected to reach a new historical high [8][29] - As of February 20, domestic methanol capacity utilization was 92.75%, up 0.68 percentage points month-on-month and 3.63 percentage points year-on-year, with weekly production at 2.072 million tons, an increase of 15,200 tons [8][29] - Overseas methanol production capacity utilization increased slightly to 51.24%, but remained below the same period last year by 7.24 percentage points. Weekly production was 747,500 tons, an increase of 72,700 tons month-on-month but a decrease of 82,700 tons year-on-year [10][31] Demand Side - Demand remains weak as the market enters a seasonal lull, with downstream procurement cautious. MTO (Methanol-to-Olefin) demand has seen a slight recovery but overall remains weak, with capacity utilization at 84.08%, up 1.34 percentage points month-on-month but down 3.07 percentage points year-on-year [11][32] - The impact of the Spring Festival has led to a general decline in operating rates across various downstream industries, significantly reducing methanol demand [14][33] Inventory - Overall social inventory of methanol remains high, with 1.7726 million tons reported as of February 13, a slight decrease of 7400 tons week-on-week but an increase of 303,100 tons year-on-year [16][37] - Port inventory reached 1.4322 million tons, an increase of 21,100 tons week-on-week and 462,700 tons year-on-year, indicating ongoing accumulation due to slow downstream recovery [17][38] Cost Side - Coal-based and natural gas-based methanol production facilities are currently operating at a loss, while coke oven gas facilities are slightly profitable. Domestic thermal coal prices have risen due to reduced output from Indonesia, which has tightened supply in the Asia-Pacific region [19][40] - The average temperature across most regions during the Spring Festival was higher than usual, leading to reduced electricity demand and further impacting coal consumption [19][40] Macroeconomic Factors - International crude oil prices have shown a trend of rising volatility, with WTI crude increasing from $60.65 per barrel on February 13 to $66.29 on February 23, driven by OPEC+ decisions and geopolitical tensions [21][42] - The rise in crude oil prices has positively influenced the chemical sector, with methanol prices also experiencing upward pressure due to overall market sentiment [21][42] Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran, have heightened market risk preferences, contributing to a rebound in methanol prices. Domestic supply remains ample, while overseas supply is constrained [23][43] - The uncertainty surrounding Iran's production and export capabilities continues to support methanol prices, although any easing of tensions could lead to price corrections [10][31][43]