春节档票房不及预期拖累影视，游戏基本面无虞，或可逢跌关注

Group 1: Media Sector Performance - The media sector experienced a significant decline, with the Film ETF (516620) dropping over 7% and the Gaming ETF (516010) falling more than 4% [1] - The primary reason for the decline in the film sector is the underperformance of the 2026 Spring Festival box office, which is expected to be around 5.683 billion yuan, a decrease of over 31% year-on-year, marking the lowest box office for the Spring Festival in nearly eight years [2] - The market had previously anticipated a box office similar to the 2024 Spring Festival level of 8 billion yuan, but the actual results fell significantly short of expectations [2] Group 2: Factors Affecting Film Box Office - The lack of a blockbuster film similar to 2025's "Nezha 2" contributed to the disappointing box office performance, with "Fast Life 3" leading with a box office of 2.7 billion yuan but lacking sufficient market share to uplift the overall box office [2] - The audience's viewing preferences have shifted, with fragmented entertainment options like short videos and short dramas continuing to divert demand away from traditional movie-going [2] - Despite the Spring Festival being the longest holiday period in history at nine days, the overall attendance rate was only 22.5%, nearly halved compared to 2025, indicating a clear mismatch between supply and demand [2] Group 3: Gaming Sector Performance - During the Spring Festival, the gaming sector showed healthy revenue performance, with major titles from Tencent occupying over seven spots in the iOS top-selling games [3] - "Honor of Kings" achieved significant engagement, while "Peace Elite" recorded a daily active user count exceeding 90 million on New Year's Eve, indicating strong performance across both major and mid-tier games [3] - The gaming sector's core companies maintain attractive valuations, and the recent decline in the Gaming ETF was primarily due to the drag from the film sector rather than any deterioration in the gaming industry's fundamentals [3][4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The Gaming ETF (516010) tracks the Zhongzheng Animation and Gaming Index (930901), covering the entire gaming and animation industry chain, while the Film ETF (516620) tracks the Zhongzheng Film Theme Index (930781), covering the entire film production and distribution chain [4] - Given the solid fundamentals and reasonable valuations in the gaming sector, it is recommended to focus on the Gaming ETF, while the film sector's box office underperformance will require time to digest, suggesting a cautious approach in the short term [4]