节后第一天票据利率走平，后市分歧较大

Market Overview - On February 24, 2026, the first working day after the Spring Festival, the bill rates remained stable, experiencing a slight decline before rebounding [1][11] - There is significant divergence in market expectations regarding the bill rates for the end of February [1][19] Daily Trading Activity - In the morning session, trading was light with both buyers and sellers in a wait-and-see mode, leading to a slight decrease in rates for certain maturities [5][13] - By midday, the rates for 3-month bills decreased by 5 basis points (BP) to 0.85%, while 7-month bills increased by 1 BP to 1.07%, and 8-month bills decreased by 1 BP to 1.14% [5][13] - In the afternoon, selling pressure increased for 6-month and 8-month bills, causing slight upward movement in rates towards the end of the session [5][13] Historical Trends - The bill rates opened significantly lower on the first working day of February, with the 7-month bill rate dropping 28 BP to 0.83% and the 8-month bill trading around 0.85% [4][15] - Following this, the rates began to rebound, with the 8-month bill rate rising to 1.15% by February 14 [4][15] - As of February 24, the 8-month bill rate remained stable at 1.15% [4][15] Interest Rate Spreads - As of February 24, the spread between bills and government bonds was -15 BP, while the spread between bills and interbank certificates of deposit was -42 BP, indicating a return to levels seen in late January [6][17] Market Sentiment - In the last week of February, both demand and supply in the market were weak, with greater uncertainty regarding demand [8][19] - A recent poll indicated that 31% of participants expect the closing rate to remain between 1.1% and 1.2%, while 27% anticipate a closing rate between 1.0% and 1.1% [8][19] - There is a slight majority expecting a downward trend in bill rates [8][19]