Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen·2026-02-24 11:35Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is currently experiencing a period of adjustment due to weak demand and inventory pressure, but many investment institutions are optimistic about a marginal recovery by 2026, particularly for high-end brands like Moutai, which are seen as anchors of market confidence [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Wande Liquor Index fell by 1.32% on the first trading day of the Lunar New Year, with several stocks dropping over 2%, and the index has accumulated a decline of 3.67% year-to-date [1]. - Despite overall sales pressure, high-end brands such as Moutai and Wuliangye showed resilience, with Moutai's wholesale price stabilizing around 1700 yuan per bottle, reflecting a 70 yuan increase from early February and a 150 yuan increase since the beginning of the year [3][4]. Group 2: Sales Trends - High-end liquor sales during the Spring Festival met expectations, with Moutai and Wuliangye achieving double-digit growth, while mid-tier brands faced challenges [2][3]. - The overall retail demand for liquor saw a double-digit decline compared to the previous year, but this decline was less severe than the drop observed during the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival [2][3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Investment institutions believe the liquor sector has reached a cyclical bottom, with signs of recovery in channel sentiment and expectations for improved market conditions in 2026 [4][5]. - The stabilization of Moutai's price is significant for the entire industry's pricing structure, potentially alleviating pressure on mid-tier and high-end liquor prices and supporting valuation recovery [4][5]. - The recovery path for the industry is expected to be structurally distinct, with a focus on high-end banquet and business demand, while mid-tier and regional brands may take longer to recover [5].