兴证策略张启尧团队：险资连续七个季度增配股票

Core Insights - The insurance capital's allocation towards bonds and stocks has slightly increased in Q4 2025, while the proportion of funds and long-term equity holdings has decreased [1][14] - The proportion of equity assets (stocks + funds) held by insurance capital has slightly declined due to a reduction in fund holdings, indicating a shift from outsourced investments to direct investments [3][15] Group 1: Asset Allocation Trends - In Q4 2025, the proportion of insurance capital held in deposits, bonds, and stocks increased by 0.3 percentage points, 0.1 percentage points, and 0.1 percentage points respectively, while fund and long-term equity holdings decreased by 0.2 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points [1][14] - The proportion of equity assets held by insurance capital decreased from 15.49% in Q3 2025 to 15.38% in Q4 2025, with stock holdings increasing steadily while fund holdings decreased [3][15] Group 2: Stock Investment Dynamics - Insurance capital has increased its stock holdings for seven consecutive quarters, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points to 10.1% in Q4 2025, reflecting a sustained trend towards equity asset allocation, with an estimated increase in scale of 706 billion [6][18] - Despite the continuous increase in stock allocation, the pace of accumulation has slowed compared to the previous three quarters, as the proportion of insurance equity asset allocation is already at a historically high level [6][18] Group 3: Future Projections - Insurance capital is expected to continue increasing its allocation to equity assets in 2026, driven by policy support and liability-side factors, potentially contributing approximately 1.2 trillion in new funds to the market [9][21] - The first quarter is anticipated to be a significant time window for insurance capital to allocate equity assets, as historically, 41% of new premiums have concentrated in this period [9][21]