油价，“三连涨”！

Core Viewpoint - Domestic fuel prices in China are set to increase, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 175 yuan and 170 yuan per ton respectively, effective from February 24, 2026 [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments - The price increase translates to an expected rise of 0.14 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, 0.15 yuan per liter for 95 gasoline, and 0.14 yuan per liter for diesel [3] - For a typical 50L tank of 92 gasoline, filling up will cost an additional 7 yuan [3] - For private vehicles, the monthly fuel cost for a car running 2000 kilometers with an average fuel consumption of 8L per 100 kilometers will increase by approximately 10 yuan [3] - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers with a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 kilometers will see an increase of around 231 yuan in fuel costs [3] Group 2: Market Trends - The current price adjustment marks the fourth pricing window in 2026, with three consecutive price increases following the initial price freeze [3] - International crude oil prices have reached a six-month high due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, which have led to a risk premium affecting oil prices [3] - Upcoming negotiations between the U.S. and Iran on February 26 in Geneva may influence future oil price movements, as the U.S. continues to exert military pressure on Iran [3] Group 3: Forecasts - Goldman Sachs has raised its fourth-quarter oil price forecasts, increasing Brent crude futures by $6 to $60 per barrel and WTI crude futures by $6 to $56 per barrel [4] - The firm notes that OECD oil inventory levels are low, and 2026 may be the last year for concentrated supply increases, leading to lower price forecasts for that year compared to long-term levels [4] - From 2028 onwards, oil prices are expected to rise above long-term forecasts, with a gradual decline anticipated due to a potential easing of geopolitical risk premiums, particularly related to Iran [4]