Is Europe ready to reduce its reliance on Visa and Mastercard?

Group 1: Global Payments Landscape - The Trump administration's support for digital assets has led to increased regulatory clarity and institutional engagement in the US crypto market, resulting in stablecoins facilitating over $30 trillion in transaction volume by 2025, primarily reflecting trading and treasury flows rather than consumer payments [1] - US foreign policy and the use of financial sanctions have prompted discussions in the Global South regarding trade settlement diversification and partial dedollarisation [1] Group 2: European Payment Sovereignty - As of 2026, European and UK banks are increasingly concerned about geopolitical and operational risks due to reliance on US-based card networks, with 42% of total European card payments processed by Visa and Mastercard in 2025 [2] - In the UK, Visa and Mastercard dominate the market, accounting for 98% of total card payment value, prompting major banks to discuss alternative solutions following warnings from the Bank of England regarding resilience and concentration risks [3] Group 3: Market Fragmentation in Europe - In the eurozone, Visa and Mastercard processed 47% of card payment value in 2025, with 13 out of 19 countries relying on these providers for at least 96% of their card transaction values, indicating a significant dependency on foreign providers [5] - The combined market share of Visa and Mastercard in the eurozone has doubled since 2010, raising concerns about long-term dependency despite improvements in cross-border acceptance and operational standardization [5] - The UK banks are likely to continue collaborating with Visa and Mastercard for supplementary infrastructure and interoperability measures rather than creating a new national scheme, reflecting the absence of a widely adopted national mobile wallet solution [4]