兴业证券：险资连续七个季度增配股票

Core Viewpoint - Insurance funds have shown a continuous trend of increasing equity asset allocation, with a slight increase in stock holdings in Q4 2025, although the pace of increase has slowed compared to previous quarters [1][10]. Group 1: Stock Holdings - In Q4 2025, insurance funds have increased their stock holdings for the seventh consecutive quarter, with a slight rise of 0.1 percentage points to 10.1% [1][10]. - The estimated scale of stock accumulation by insurance funds in Q4 2025 reached 70.6 billion yuan, indicating a sustained trend of equity asset allocation [1][10]. - Despite the increase, the allocation ratio and accumulation scale for stocks have slowed down compared to the previous three quarters due to the already high historical levels of equity asset allocation [1][10]. Group 2: Asset Allocation - The proportion of insurance funds holding bonds and stocks has slightly increased in Q4 2025, with changes of +0.3 percentage points for deposits, +0.1 percentage points for bonds, and +0.1 percentage points for stocks [2]. - Conversely, the proportion of funds and long-term equity holdings has decreased, with changes of -0.2 percentage points for funds and -0.3 percentage points for long-term equity [2]. - The proportion of equity assets (stocks + funds) held by insurance funds has slightly decreased from 15.49% in Q3 2025 to 15.38% in Q4 2025, primarily due to a decline in fund holdings [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Insurance funds are expected to continue increasing their equity asset allocation trend into 2026, supported by policy backing and liability-driven factors, potentially becoming a major incremental force in the market [14]. - It is predicted that insurance funds will bring approximately 1.2 trillion yuan in incremental funds to the market in 2026, based on an estimated 30% of new premiums [14]. - The first quarter is anticipated to be a significant time window for insurance funds to allocate equity assets, as historically, 41% of new premiums have concentrated in this period [14].