杨华曌:现货黄金价格涨跌走势分析及日内多空操作建议

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant pullback after reaching a monthly high of $5230, indicating a shift from short-term buying to profit-taking, with U.S. monetary policy being a key variable influencing gold prices [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices showed a clear upward trend before retreating, with market participants moving towards profit-taking [1][4]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicate that several officials believe that a new round of easing should not be pursued until inflation trends stabilize [1][4]. - Changes in U.S. trade policy, including new global tariff proposals by President Trump, have raised concerns about global economic growth, impacting market sentiment [5]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, continue to pose potential conflict risks, with the market closely monitoring U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations [5]. - Such military conflict risks typically increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold, providing medium to long-term support for prices [5]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The overall trend for gold remains bullish, but it has entered a structural adjustment phase after reaching a peak around $5238 [7]. - The price is currently above long-term moving averages, but there is a notable distance between the price and these averages, indicating a potential need for a return to the mean [7]. - Key support levels are identified around the 50-day moving average, while the 200-day moving average remains significantly below current prices, suggesting that the long-term bullish structure is intact as long as mid-term support is not breached [7].