影视游戏点评丨春节档票房不及预期拖累影视，游戏基本面无虞，或可逢跌关注

Group 1 - The media sector experienced a significant decline, with the Film ETF (516620) dropping over 7% and the Gaming ETF (516010) falling more than 4% [1] - The primary reason for the decline in the film sector is the underperformance of the 2026 Spring Festival box office, which is expected to be around 5.683 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of over 31%, marking the lowest box office for the Spring Festival in nearly eight years [2] - The gaming sector's decline is mainly attributed to the nearly 10% weight of film stocks in the index, while the gaming industry's fundamentals remain strong, with healthy revenue data during the Spring Festival [1][3] Group 2 - The 2026 Spring Festival box office significantly underperformed expectations, with the actual results falling far below the anticipated 8 billion yuan level for 2024, primarily due to a lack of blockbuster films and a fragmented audience [2] - Despite the longest Spring Festival holiday in history, with a record 4.33 million screenings, the overall attendance rate was only 22.5%, nearly halving compared to 2025, indicating a clear mismatch between supply and demand [2] - The gaming industry showed robust performance during the Spring Festival, with Tencent having over seven games in the iOS top 10, and significant growth in overseas revenue for titles like "Heart Town" [3][4] Group 3 - The Gaming ETF (516010) tracks the China Securities Animation and Gaming Index (930901), covering the entire gaming and animation industry chain, while the Film ETF (516620) tracks the China Securities Film Theme Index (930781) [4] - The gaming sector's fundamentals are solid, and valuations are reasonable, with the Spring Festival revenue validating the industry's prosperity, suggesting a focus on the Gaming ETF [4] - The film sector's box office performance requires time to digest, and there is a need for observation regarding future catalysts in AI applications [4]