春节期间光伏多环节库存增加 节后有望迎来改善

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a shift in market dynamics, with declining prices for silicon wafers and battery cells, leading to increased inventory levels and reduced production rates. The upcoming changes in export tax policies are expected to influence demand and production strategies in the near future [1][2][3]. Group 1: Silicon Wafer Market - During the Spring Festival, silicon wafer prices remained stable, but low-price orders are decreasing. Prior to the festival, prices had been declining for several weeks due to reduced downstream demand and increased inventory levels [1]. - In February 2026, silicon wafer production decreased by over 3%, slightly exceeding expectations. Inventory levels continued to rise during the Spring Festival, and there is an expectation for downstream battery enterprises to resume operations post-holiday, potentially leading to a destocking cycle [1]. - The market transaction situation for silicon wafers is poor, with low operating rates. However, as downstream companies resume operations, some procurement activity is anticipated [1]. Group 2: Battery Cell Production - In February, the global production of battery cells by Chinese companies decreased by 11% month-on-month, with domestic production down by 12%. This decline is attributed to weak market demand and fluctuations in silver prices [1][2]. - Manufacturers are prioritizing the digestion of existing inventory in February before assessing production plans based on March demand and cost expectations, aiming to minimize operational losses due to delayed cost transmission [1][2]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Trends - The upcoming cancellation of the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products is expected to lead to a surge in orders from overseas terminal enterprises as the deadline approaches, potentially boosting short-term export volumes and production schedules [2]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association forecasts that the new installed capacity for photovoltaic systems in China will range from 180GW to 240GW in 2026, indicating a significant decline compared to the 315GW added in 2025 [2]. - The industry is shifting from "scale competition" to "value competition," with leading companies leveraging technological advantages and cost control to enhance their market share. High-quality photovoltaic products are becoming the primary path for market differentiation, reducing the impact of price competition [3].