国际能源署发布报告显示——全球市场石油供应短期承压

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency's February report indicates a significant decline in global oil supply due to geopolitical tensions, extreme weather, and reduced exports from Kazakhstan, Russia, and Venezuela, leading to a rise in oil prices, with Brent crude surpassing $70 per barrel for the first time since September 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Supply and Price Dynamics - In January, global oil supply decreased by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to 106.6 million bpd, influenced by geopolitical tensions and extreme weather conditions [1]. - The report highlights that Russian oil supply fell by 350,000 bpd in January, primarily due to increased sanctions from the US and EU, resulting in India's imports of Russian oil dropping to 1.1 million bpd, the lowest since November 2022 [2]. - Venezuela's oil production decreased by 210,000 bpd to 780,000 bpd in January, but is expected to rebound following US authorization for exports [2]. Group 2: Refining and Inventory Trends - Global refinery crude processing fell from a record 86.3 million bpd in December to 85.7 million bpd in January due to seasonal maintenance and declining refining margins [3]. - Global oil inventories increased by 37 million barrels in December, reaching a total of 477 million barrels, with OECD oil inventories also rising for the first time since 2021 [3][5]. - An expected increase of 49 million barrels in global oil inventories in January indicates ongoing supply exceeding demand [3]. Group 3: Future Projections - The report forecasts a strong rebound in global oil supply in 2026, with an expected demand growth of 850,000 bpd, primarily driven by non-OECD economies [4]. - Global oil production is projected to increase by 2.4 million bpd in 2026, reaching 108.6 million bpd, with contributions evenly split between OPEC and non-OPEC producers [4]. - The average global crude processing volume is anticipated to rise by 790,000 bpd to 84.6 million bpd in 2026, mainly driven by non-OECD countries [4].