从暴跌31%到溢价走升 国投白银LOF故事未完

Core Viewpoint - The recent temporary suspension of trading for Guotou UBS Fund's Guotou Silver LOF has drawn significant attention from investors, particularly following a series of controversies regarding its valuation adjustments and compensation plans [1][2]. Group 1: Trading Suspension and Market Response - On February 24, Guotou Silver LOF announced a one-hour trading suspension, with the price experiencing high volatility upon resumption, ultimately closing at the daily limit [1]. - The fund's announcement indicated that if the premium on the secondary market did not effectively decrease, it would apply for further temporary suspensions to warn the market of risks [2]. - The fund's secondary market price was significantly above its net asset value, leading to a surge in investor arbitrage activities [3]. Group 2: Valuation Adjustments and Investor Impact - As of February 13, the premium rate for Guotou Silver LOF reached 21.25%, with significant discrepancies between domestic and international silver prices due to regulatory constraints on domestic futures [4]. - The fund's decision to revalue its holdings based on international market fluctuations resulted in a record single-day net asset value decline of over 31% on February 2, impacting investors who were unaware of the impending valuation changes [4][5]. - Analysts have raised concerns that the arbitrage strategy promoted by LOF products may obscure core risks, particularly in extreme market conditions where liquidity can vanish [4]. Group 3: Compensation Plan and Industry Reactions - Following the valuation adjustment, Guotou UBS Fund announced a compensation plan for individual investors affected by the losses, offering full compensation for losses under 1,000 yuan and proportional compensation for amounts exceeding that [5]. - This compensation approach has sparked widespread discussion within the industry, as it is considered unprecedented for fund managers to offer such remedies in response to valuation disputes [6]. - Legal experts have noted that the distinction between procedural flaws and investment risk will be crucial in determining the legitimacy of compensation claims, potentially raising the "error tolerance cost" for the public fund industry [6]. Group 4: Financial Impact and Company Response - The compensation plan is expected to have a negative impact on Guotou Capital's net profit for 2026, estimated to be less than 5% of the audited net profit for 2024, which translates to a maximum impact of approximately 135 million yuan [7]. - Despite the controversy, Guotou Capital's stock price remained relatively stable, with a slight decline observed following the announcement [7].